Episode 1414: Follow the Leader
Date August 7, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Mike Trout’s 28th birthday, the stats he’s led the league in, and the stats he still might lead the league in for the first time, the Mets’ recent hot streak and the way in which their season has been both tumultuous and predictable, Max Muncy and a cycle/walk-off triple attempt, and whether the basepaths should be wider, then answer listener emails about the best era in which to hit for the cycle, how teams should decide whether they’re out of contention, and baseball without timeouts, plus email-inspired Stat Blasts about whether it’s good to get a lot of walk-off wins and whether pitchers should swing away with the bases loaded and one out. Topics * Team projections and knowing when to buy or sell * Widening basepaths to increase offense * Making rundowns more exciting * Correlation between walk-off and season wins * Pitchers batting with the bases loaded and one out * Baseball without timeouts * Mike Trout's changing punctuation habits Intro Stephen Malkmus & The Jicks, "Forever 28" Outro The Breeders, "Walk it Off" Banter * Episode 961 follow-up: Mike Trout turned 28 and Ben revisits a conversation that he and Sam had in 2016. At the time they drafted single-season statistical categories that they thought Mike Trout would eventually lead MLB in (but had not in the time). Ben and Sam wonder which categories Mike Trout might still lead the league in, including playing time, batting average, home runs, and doubles. * Episode 1376 follow-up: Max Muncy was thwarted in his attempt for a walk-off triple (which would have given him a cycle) because his teammates began to mob the basepaths. * Best baseball era to hit a cycle * The New York Mets' recent hot-streak and regression to pre-season projections. Email Questions * Tim (Toronto, Canada): "I was thinking about when the best era to hit a cycle would be. Like there are a lot of homers nowadays but not a lot of hits or triples. So I thought the early 1900s would be ripe for cycles because of all the triples, except they didn’t hit many home runs back then. I was surprised to find out the record for cycles in a MLB season is a tie for first with 2009 and 1933 with 8 each. Neither are in my mind’s wheelhouse for cycles. So is there a way to find out which decade or era would statistically be the most primed for cycles even if that decade did not have the most cycles?" * T: "It is July 30th and 15/30 baseball teams have declared themselves buyers or sellers. Looking at the wild card standings, the Angles at 5.5 are the team closest to contention yet are shipping out relievers. That team in the NL is the Diamondbacks at 4 back. The Giants, who some said should sell, are just 2.5. Of course, run differential can be a healthy consideration as can a contention windows or payroll constraints. But let's, for argument's sake, say all these variables are even between all teams. That is, in a perfectly mediocre league, how many games back do you sell?" * Kyle: "I saw that tonight's Dodger's victory was their 9th this season, which is the most in the league. However, the network phrased it as "MLB-best 9th walk off". This made me curious, does leading the league in walk off wins say anything about the quality of the team? Is the highest count of walk off wins THE BEST? Or is it better to have a low number of walk offs? Or is it optimal to be just average? I think I would expect teams with better pitching to have more walk offs just from needing fewer runs at the end of the game to come back from. But maybe it's as simple as higher scoring teams having more walk offs because they score more runs. As for team quality, since teams with the most walk off wins have those wins in the bank, I would think their final records would have to be above .500 but I have absolutely no intuition about how far above." * Shaun (Atlanta, GA): “This afternoon, during the Braves-Nationals game, with the bases loaded and one out and Mike Soroka up with Ronald Acuna on deck, Soroka swung away and hit into a double play to end the inning. It seems obvious that Soroka should have just stood at the plate in that situation. But is it so clear cut? What are the odds of a double play versus no double play or, better yet, of Soroka actually driving in a run/ multiple runs? What are the odds of Acuna driving in a run or multiple runs with two outs (assuming Soroka probably would have struck out if he'd just stood there)? How often has this situation happened in baseball history: bases loaded, one out, pitcher up, and he hits into a double play?” * Tim (Toronto, Canada): “With all the talk of pace of play, I had a thought the other day on a way to cut down on time. Players constantly call for “time” any chance they can, so what if baseball were more like basketball? Timeouts could be limited to only five per game, or even to zero. Insert your number here. I wonder how this would impact strategy, if at all.” Stat Blast * Sam's first Stat Blast segment is inspired by Kyle's email about if the number of walk-off victories corresponds to team quality. * There is a weak correlation between team quality and number of walk-off wins. * Since 2000 teams with the fewest walk-offs allowed were on average 85-win teams. * The second Stat Blast segment looks at Shaun's question. * There have been 635 plate appearances since 2008 where the pitcher batted with the bases loaded and one out. 102 times the pitcher has grounded into a double play. Notes * Sam thinks it is most likely that Mike Trout leads the league in batting average. * The Mets were predicted in the pre-season to win 83.6 games. They are currently projected for 83.8 games. Their playoff chances are also relatively unchanged. * Sam says he would be OK with baseball if there were wider basepaths and every play looked like a security guard trying to chase down a streaker. * The 2012 Baltimore Orioles did not allow a walk-off loss all season, the only team to do so since 2000. The 2001 Orioles only allowed one walk-off. The 2019 Baltimore Orioles do not have a walk-off victory this season. This has not happened over a full season since 1978. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1414: Follow the Leader * What's Left for Mike Trout to Conquer? by Ben Lindbergh * The mystery of the walk-off triple by Sam Miller * Accurate prediction and the speed of light by Phil Birnbaum Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes